BRASÍLIA, BRAZIL — October 25, 2026

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the country’s presidential run-off against right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to a victory projection by polling institute Datafolha, securing a fourth, non-consecutive term in office.

The projection, reported by Reuters on Sunday, placed Lula ahead in a closely contested election that has highlighted Brazil’s deep political divisions. With more than 78% of ballots counted at the time of reporting, Lula led with 51.21% of the valid votes against 48.79% for Bolsonaro. The electoral authorities had not yet formally declared the final result at that stage.

The victory marks another major milestone in Lula’s political career, extending his return to power after defeating Flávio’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, in the 2022 election. Lula previously governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in January 2023.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, entered the run-off after finishing ahead of Lula in the first round on October 4. His campaign sought to mobilise Brazil’s conservative electorate around public security, economic policy and the political legacy of his father. Lula, 80, campaigned on social welfare, poverty reduction, workers’ rights and environmental protection.

The close contest reflects continuing divisions over Brazil’s economic direction, social policies and international relations. Lula’s new mandate is expected to maintain his emphasis on multilateral diplomacy and cooperation among developing countries, while Brazil continues to play a prominent role in Latin American affairs and the BRICS grouping.

The outcome is also significant for Brazil’s relations with Africa. As Brazil and Nigeria pursue opportunities in trade, aviation, education, research and cultural exchange, continued diplomatic engagement could help strengthen ties between Latin America and the African continent. Their shared historical connections, particularly through the African diaspora and Brazil’s rich African cultural heritage, provide an important foundation for further cooperation.

For the Bolsonaro family, the result represents a setback in its effort to regain the presidency. Nevertheless, the narrow margin demonstrates the enduring strength of Brazil’s conservative political movement.

Lula’s victory, confirmed by Brazil’s electoral authorities, keeps the country under left-wing leadership for another four years and represents a setback for the conservative movement associated with former president Jair Bolsonaro. The result also marks an unprecedented achievement: Lula becomes Brazil’s first president to win four non-consecutive terms. 

Lula’s projected victory places him on course to become Brazil’s first president to serve four non-consecutive terms, subject to the formal confirmation of the election result by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).